Another Israel Centered Conflict

Despite the posturing, years of defiance and threatening to destroy Israel, evidence of a nuclear weapons program, proven aid to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda in Iraq, the coming war with Iran will be blamed on Israel. First, how do I know there will be a war?

Israel has been quiet. The leadership was vocal about Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran for months, and now for the exception of the deal to release Shalit (a soldier captured by Hamas) the leadership is quiet. Look through the past offensives and you will see a lead up of six months where four months were usually diplomatic and calling for international action. Then the headlines drop down with the news of increased activity by Hamas, Hezbolla, or whoever the attacker may be but it is not acted upon by the world.

Well, the past couple of weeks more rockets have been falling on Israel. Israel has done the usual voicing of complaint but has not turned to the international community this time.

So why would a war with Iran become an Israeli centered conflict? Israeli forces would occupy Gaza, tank divisions would capture Damascus, and Southern Lebanon would see increased air attacks and possibly Israeli special forces operations. This on top of the Israeli air strikes in Iran which would be the primary reason for starting the conflict: Iran's nuclear program. Yet, that would pale in comparison to the actual tug of war battles Israel's ground forces would be waging.

The second Israel strikes Iran has a global network of nations willing to instantly declare Israel the wrong doer, while the West will wait to see if it was justified. Such an instant reaction will certainly play against Israel in the UN and in global opinion. This is simply because world leaders, no matter how ridiculous their statements, are always listened to more than a logical observer. Such leaders will also charge war crimes just in the fact that the casualties are "disproportionate" to the nations other than Israel, disregarding any logical explanation (Israel has better training, equipment, the fighting is taking place in non-Israeli territory, ect.)

At first Israel will be victorious as they will probably be conducting this as a preemptive strike and have the element of surprise. However the U.S. leadership may be wary of having Iranian forces flowing into an already difficult situation in Afghanistan and/or destabilizing Iraq. Such fears could lead to neutrality or a limited bombing campaign only along any position of Iranian offensives against the U.S. With U.S. leadership in doubt the world will look to the other viewpoint for leadership, and that would be anti-Israel.

So at first the global opinion will be shock, but by the third day headlines will be anti-Israel. By the end of the week accusations of war crimes will be so numerous in the chaos of war that Israel will be condemned without the truth being known. Israel will be left an equal to any regime of oppression by the end of the month after the conflict begins. I have no idea how long the war will last but the sooner it ends the better for Israel because that would mean the sooner the truth and investigations to Israel's innocence can begin to repair a global anti-Israel spike.