Instability Approaches

South America's recent trouble for Honduras was just the beginning. I've been looking at the data and Peru, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico are moving towards political crisis. Mexico's crisis lies in the new government being unwilling to cooperate with the drug war. Peru has its troubles in a cabinet of the president that seems ready to call it quits. Argentina has a string of issues from the recent election where political parties are calling for their own leaders to be changed and the current president is going to have much opposition in the new government. Brazil's Congressional leader has the backing of the president, but not much else. He may be forced to resign on corruption charges which will definately hurt the credibility Brazil's president has with the congress. These situations could lead to political gridlock in the very least for some of the most critical nations in South America.

Brazil and Mexico can be seen as potential U.S. allies. Brazil is without a doubt the political powerhouse of South America with military and economic superiority. A political gridlock could lead to some unlikely, and for us unwanted, changes in the leanings of those who lead Brazil. Mexico being in gridlock means the efforts against drugs in Mexico will be lessened, if not halted and that will mean the fight goes to our side of the border once more with street battles in San Diego once more instead of Tijuana.

For Peru to become held up could lead to a political opening for the Communists, yes they still exist in Peru, to gain more power. This would allow the Shining Path to have allies within the government which, to say the least, is a very very bad thing. Argentina could see a more pro-America approach follow what has been a very hostile speech giving approach from the current leaders.