I am calling it. Venezuela will invade Honduras. However, lets first examine some stupidy by our state department. The following is a quote from this article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=asgQZRiaT9vs
Chavez has been "unclear" about his position on Honduras, a State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley, told reporters today.
Excerpt over. Philip J. Crowley should resign. Joking or being ignorant, he clearly isn't doing his job making statements like that. Now to Hugo Chavez' position. During the first days Hugo Chavez said his military was going on high alert and will defend Zelaya. The following is from the same article earlier:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said talks to try to resolve a political crisis in Honduras are "dead."
Chavez said today Zelaya is "resolved" to try to return to Honduras. He said that Zelaya is the only person who can convene presidential elections in Honduras that are scheduled for November, and that Venezuela won’t recognize any government elected in a vote called by the "coup government."
Excerpt over. So in combination with the statements about the military of Venezuela going on high alert, declaring that the diplomatic efforts are dead, saying Zelaya is the only president they will recognize, and any election by anyone other than Zelaya is illegal, Hugo Chavez is going to invade Honduras and place Zelaya in power.
I had drafted a blog right after the transition of power took place about the military strengths of Hondurus compared to its neighbors and most likely opponents. Venezuela alone has a military 30 times larger than Honduras, add in Nicaragua, Cuba and it is even more hopeless. Honduras can only do its best to dig in and prepare for the worst. It could face a three sided war if Ecuador gets involved. I believe Bolivia could only take part in the sense of declaring war but probably not getting troops involved.
Now to the title. World War 2 had many wars before its official start upon the invasion of Poland. There was the Rhineland, Austria, Czechoslovakia for Germany. Italy had Ethiopia and Albania. Japan went way back to Formosa, Korea, and Manchuko. Germany was the last of the Axis to have a war. North Korea has not had a war. Iran has had many for quite a while, like Japan, by funding some of the insurgents, specifically the Al-Sadr Militia, in Iraq, Hamas in Palestine, and Hezbolla throughout Lebanon, Syria, and the Middle East as a whole. So far Venezuela has immitated Germany's approach by supporting movements in neighboring countries while keeping Hugo's hands clean. The Rhineland for Venezuela could be any number of government control actions that take the power away from governors of states who are opposed to Chavez. Will Honduras be the Austria of Germany?
No war is the same as the last. However the signs of war stay the same. Belligerence is the precursor to war. Without it the people of a nation will never be in favor of conflict. Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea are certainly feeding their people the belligerence necessary for war.
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